Top Three Markets to Watch This Week: Gold, Bitcoin, and EUR/USD

Markets kick off the week walking a tightrope between earnings optimism and mounting macro risks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq punched out fresh record highs before paring gains, with Big Tech—led by Alphabet and Amazon—powering ahead of earnings.

Locally, the S&P/ASX 200 edged higher on Tuesday after RBA minutes revealed that a tight labour market was the main reason behind July’s surprise rate hold. With the June’s unemployment figure ticking higher, the message out today reinforces the view that a rate cut is firmly on the table for the next meeting.

Beyond central bank signals, trade tensions remain in focus. PM Albanese pushed back on criticism over U.S. relations, as Australia prepares for steel and aluminum tariffs to double to 50% from August 1.

With the global outlook still clouded by policy uncertainty and geopolitical friction, three markets—gold, Bitcoin, and EUR/USD—are front and centre, each capturing the push and pull between risk appetite and safe-haven flows.

Gold (XAU/USD) – Daily Chart

Gold surged to its highest level since mid-June, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields. Gold broke out of a tightening wedge within its broader uptrend, touching $3,394—its highest since mid-June. It remains supported above $3,265 and $3,232.

Momentum has turned positive, with RSI pointing higher. A confirmed break above $3,442 could open the door toward $3,497 and $3,560. However, failure to hold $3,265 may lead to a pullback toward $3,181 or even the lower trendline near $3,100.

The setup remains bullish, but near-term moves will be driven by Fed commentary and trade headlines.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)-Weekly Chart

Bitcoin continues to trade within a firm ascending channel, with the latest rally stalling near the upper trendline around $120,000. After notching higher highs at $106,967, $108,906, and $119,738, BTC is now encountering resistance. Key support stands at $107,800, backed by a rising trendline.

The KDJ indicator signals waning upside momentum, suggesting short-term consolidation or a pullback is likely. A breakout above $120,000 would set the stage for a move toward $135,000. A break below $108,000, however, could trigger a deeper correction toward $100,000.

EUR/USD—Macro and Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is in focus ahead of this week’s ECB meeting. No rate move is expected, as officials maintain a wait-and-see stance amid trade uncertainty. Inflation has eased to around 2%, and with the euro up nearly 12% year-to-date—pressuring import costs—the ECB has room to stay on hold.

All eyes will be on the ECB’s tone, with any dovish shift likely to pressure EUR/USD, while a neutral tone may support the pair’s push toward 1.18.

Technically, EUR/USD remains in a rising channel since late 2023. After peaking at 1.1821, it pulled back to strong support near 1.1582. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1726. A break above this level could retest yearly highs, while a drop below 1.1580 may open a move toward the channel base.

Momentum indicators have turned mildly bullish, suggesting the short-term rebound could continue.

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