Three markets to watch: Gold, AUD/USD and EUR/USD

Wall Street ended this Tuesday with a split verdict as markets tried to digest hotter-than-expected June inflation data, a mixed earnings picture from major banks, and headlines that Nvidia may resume chip sales to China.

June’s CPI data came in as expected—up 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y—marking the second straight monthly acceleration and the highest annual rate since February. Price pressures were notably firmer in key categories: food inflation picked up to 3% (from 2.9% in May), transportation services rose 3.4% (from 2.8%), and used cars and trucks jumped 2.8% (from 1.8%).

With Trump pushing for 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, concerns are rising that fresh inflation shocks could derail the Fed’s policy path. As of now, the CME FedWatch tool shows market odds for a 25bps cut in September have slipped to 53%, down from 60% a week earlier.

Meanwhile, another key macro watch in the market this week is China’s heavy-weight economic data pack.  China’s Q2 GDP beat expectations with 5.2% growth, inching closer to Beijing’s full-year target. Exports remained the bright spot, offsetting sluggish domestic consumption. But the underlying worry is deepening deflation—falling prices and weak private investment signal risks of a more prolonged slowdown.

This week, let’s have a closer look at below top trading markets:

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical View: Coiling Ahead of Breakout Catalyst

Gold is stuck in a tight range between $3,323 and $3,352, caught between a narrowing triangle pattern. The precious metal is holding above all major moving averages, including the 200-day SMA, suggesting longer-term strength. RSI hovers near neutral (49), while KDJ momentum is picking up slightly. A decisive break above $3,352 could spark a retest of $3,455 and $3,500, while a failure to hold $3,281 risks slipping toward $3,218.

AUD/USD Technical View: Consolidation Within Uptrend

AUD/USD remains inside an ascending channel despite some profit-taking. The pair is trading just above 0.6520, clinging to the 50-day moving average (Red). Near-term resistance sits at 0.6554, followed by 0.6590 and 0.6614(ceiling of the ascending channel).

Momentum is softening—RSI near 50 and KDJ rolling over—suggesting a pause is likely. A break below 0.6480 could open the door toward 0.6407. That said, the broader trend still leans constructive unless the channel breaks decisively.

EUR/USD Technical View: Bullish Channel Faces Short-Term Pullback

EUR/USD is cooling off after gaining 13% year to date. Price is consolidating near 1.1607, slightly below the short-term resistance trendline and the 20-day SMA. While momentum is easing (RSI dipped below 50), the medium-term setup remains bullish. Key support lies at 1.1520–1.1450, while upside resistance looms at 1.1726. If buyers reclaim the uptrend line, the pair could make another push toward the 1.19–1.20 zone.

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