RBA Cut and Fed Bets Ignite Rally — Eyes on Gold, Bitcoin, and Nasdaq

Global markets surged into this week with fresh records. The RBA’s widely expected 25bp rate cut on Tuesday propelled the ASX 200 to new highs, while cooler-than-feared US inflation added fuel to Wall Street’s rally, lifting both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh peaks. July’s headline CPI stayed at 2.7%, bucking expectations for a tariff-driven rise to 2.8%, while core CPI edged up to 3.1% from 2.9%, just above the 3% forecast. Markets now assign a 93% probability to a September Fed cut.

Against this backdrop, three markets take centre stage this week: gold’s sensitivity to shifting rate expectations, Bitcoin’s volatility in a risk-on climate, and the Nasdaq’s tech-fuelled rally.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold retreated toward $3,335 after US President Donald Trump confirmed via social media that gold imports will not face tariffs, easing market jitters triggered by a prior federal ruling suggesting certain bullion bars could be subject to duties.

Technically, the metal remains range-bound between $3,269 and $3,439, with a breakout targeting $3,462 and $3,510. Despite this month’s pullback, price action is holding above multi-EMA support, with $3,269 acting as a firm floor in recent weeks. A break below this level could expose $3,188 and $3,120. KDJ is neutral, leaving near-term bias dependent on whether support holds.

BTCUSD

Bitcoin is consolidating around $119,000 after rebounding from trendline support near $114,500. The price remains within an ascending channel, with immediate resistance at $121,175 and $122,987. A breakout above this zone could pave the way toward the record high at $123,000. On the downside, support lies at $116,693 and $114,529, with a breach opening the door to $110,000. KDJ is rolling over from overbought territory, signaling potential for short-term consolidation or a pullback if sellers step in, though the broader uptrend remains intact above the lower channel boundary.

NAS100

The Nasdaq 100 is consolidating just below record highs near 23,700, holding within a well-defined ascending channel. The 20-day SMA continues to provide near-term support, reinforcing the broader bullish structure. Key support is at 23,223, aligned with the 50-day SMA.

KDJ is entering overbought territory, pointing to possible short-term exhaustion. A breakout above 23,700 would set the stage for a move toward 24,000, while a close below channel support could trigger a pullback to 23,200. The bias remains bullish, but traders should watch for momentum divergence and the channel’s integrity in the days ahead.

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