Navigating NAS100, DJ30, SP500 Amid Tariff Uncertainties

The U.S. stock markets are where the action is right now, teetering on the edge of recovery or ruin with every word and move from U.S. President Trump. As we dive deeper into 2025, markets seem caught in a tug-of-war between optimism and uncertainty, and retail traders are right in the thick of it.

Markets saw a brief relief rally after Trump reassured of the Fed’s independence, confirming no plans to remove Fed Chair Powell and hinting at a softer stance on China, with final tariffs potentially lower than initially feared. However, ongoing policy flip-flops and persistent trade tensions continue to cast a long shadow over US equities.

So where do we go from here? Let’s take a closer look at the three major U.S. indices: the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30), and S&P 500 (SP500) and what lies ahead.

NASDAQ 100 (NAS100): Tech’s turbulent terrain

The NASDAQ 100, a tech-centric index, has experienced significant volatility in 2025. Following a robust performance in 2024, the index faced a sharp correction in early April 2025, driven by heightened trade tensions and broad-based tariffs under the Trump administration. Unless there is a shift in the US stance on trade and international policies, US tech stocks, known for their high-beta nature could continue to take a beating. Nevertheless, continue to pay attention to earnings announcements and calls, for an idea of how these tech giants are adapting to the new landscape.

Ticker: NAS100, Timeframe: Daily

NAS100 continues holding below the descending trendline and Ichimoku cloud, indicating strong bearish pressure. A deeper pullback could see the price retest the 19,500 points resistance zone, aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension. If bearish momentum continues, the index may dip to the 16,500 points support, or further towards the next low at 15,300 points, in line with the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension. Otherwise, a deeper pullback in price, upon a break above the 19,500 points resistance could see a retest of the swing high at 20,300 points resistance again.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI30): Growth resilience amidst uncertainty

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, representing 30 major U.S. companies, has mirrored broader market trends in 2025. However, industrials and some consumer giants have provided a cushion, especially as traders rotate into safer names amid inflation fears and Trump-driven uncertainty.

Ticker: DJ30, Timeframe: Daily

DJ30 is showing a similar bearish price structure. We could see a reversal and continuation of the bearish move below the 40,800 points resistance, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. Deeper pullbacks could see a retest of the 42,800 points resistance at the previous swing high and 78.6% Fibonacci Extension. However, further bearish pressure is likely to send prices lower towards the 37,200 and 34,500 support zones.

S&P 500 (SP500): Do we still see U.S. exceptionalism?

The S&P 500, encompassing a wide range of U.S. companies, has faced a complex landscape in 2025. The index entered correction territory in March, influenced by tariff announcements and recession fears. With the prospect of prolonged tensions with China on the horizon, as US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated a full rebalancing of US-China trade relations could take another two to three years, traders are beginning to close the chapter on U.S. exceptionalism. The selloff of U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasury bonds and the US dollar suggests wavering confidence and could continue to pressure the SP500.

Ticker: SP500, Timeframe: Daily

SP500 is seeing strong bearish pressure, holding below all three indicators – descending trendline, Ichimoku cloud and 50-day EMA. We are likely to see the 5,500-points pullback resistance level hold, as it remains an area of Fibonacci confluence with 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension and also is in line with the 50-day EMA.

The index is likely to trend lower on bearish sentiment towards the 5,095 points support, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement. Otherwise, a deeper pullback could see the price pushing slightly higher towards the 5,800 points resistance in line with the 100% Fibonacci Extension.

Tariffs, trade tensions, and policy uncertainty continue to steer market sentiment in 2025. While short-term rebounds may offer moments of relief, the broader trend across NAS100, DJ30, and SP500 remains cautious. Keep a close watch on price levels and key economic signals—volatility is likely to remain a core theme in the months ahead.

Disclaimer: The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our client. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and therefore it shouldn’t be relied upon as such. Any research provided does not have regard to specific financial situations, needs or investment objectives. Vantage accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. We advise any readers of this material to seek professional advice where necessary. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.