Bitcoin Bear is Back: Why and What’s Next?

It’s not news that crypto is synonymous with volatility—and Bitcoin, as the market’s bellwether, keeps proving the point. Just four weeks after breaking a record high above $120,000, the world’s largest cryptocurrency tumbled back into five-digit territory for the first time since June.

On November 5, Bitcoin slid below $100,000, reviving the debate over whether this marks the start of a deeper correction—or a crucial reset before the next leg higher.

A Review of Bitcoin’s 2025 Journey

Before diving into the latest roller-coaster move, it’s worth looking back at Bitcoin’s 2025 journey.

The year began with optimism. Traders pinned hopes on Trump’s renewed pro-crypto stance to drive a sustained rally, yet the outcome proved far less straightforward. Despite policy talk, crypto struggled to shake off macro headwinds and risk-off sentiment.

Bitcoin’s supposed “digital haven” status was repeatedly tested as geopolitical flashpoints—from tariff tensions to regional conflicts—failed to deliver the safe-haven bid once expected. Decentralization didn’t shield it from traditional risk cycles; instead, it traded like a high-beta asset in a fragile liquidity environment.

Bitcoin’s Autum Crash

The turning point came in mid-October, when a brutal wave of forced liquidations wiped out billions of leveraged positions overnight. The event resembled a “flash deleveraging,” where auto-deleveraging (ADL) systems liquidated altcoin-heavy portfolios without room for human intervention, triggering a domino sell-off across major exchanges.

From April to early October, Bitcoin had surged over 60%, only to surrender nearly 20% within days. Despite the rebound attempts, year-to-date gains have now shrunk to under 10%, well behind equities and gold.

From Crash to Rebuild

While the mid-October crash was brief, it laid bare the structural fragilities of crypto’s market plumbing—fragmented liquidity, automatic liquidations, and a lack of robust shock absorbers.

However, the same event acted as a necessary purge, flushing out excess leverage and leaving the market on a healthier footing. The riskier corners bore the brunt, but institutional players—who kept leverage lower—are better positioned to lead the next recovery phase.

Still, full stabilization may take months, if not longer. In the meantime, sentiment is likely to remain cautious, though the post-October cleanup could lay the groundwork for a stronger foundation heading into 2026—especially as investors brace for the ripple effects of the Federal Reserve’s pivot from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, a shift poised to unleash renewed liquidity support in the months ahead.

Bitcoin Prices Technical Analysis

Bitcoin’s daily chart has turned more sober. Price has broken below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and completed a head-and-shoulders pattern—both classic bear-reversal signals.

The coin is testing a long-term ascending trendline around $97,000, a level that has held for over a year. A successful defence could spark a rebound toward $100,000–$105,000.

If the trendline fails, the next key support is near $87,700, roughly a 30% retracement from the peak—mirroring the correction seen earlier this year.

Momentum remains soft: RSI sits below 40, indicating oversold conditions without a confirmed reversal. Volume shows capitulation spikes, but not full exhaustion—suggesting the market is still searching for conviction.

The Bigger Picture

Macro remains the wild card. Despite ongoing Fed rate cuts expectation, uncertainty around fiscal deficits and geopolitics won’t fade anytime soon. As 2025 has shown, these catalysts will keep testing crypto’s nerves.

Stepping back, October’s sell-off may be remembered as a turning point rather than an endgame—a structural reset that purged excess leverage and tilted participation toward institutional flows and real-world utility.

Ultimately, the bear phase may linger, but if history is a guide, the rebuild phase now underway could quietly set the foundation for the next major cycle.

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